Politics

 

Many more Republicans and Independents than Democrats thinking about upcoming elections

By Dave Andrusko
Let’s put three items together and see what they might tell us about the political lay of the land with 68 days to go until the November 4 mid-term elections.
First, today’s Gallup approval/disapproval numbers for President Barack Obama: 40%/54%. Realistically, it would be hard to conjure up a scenario where 40% approval becomes 43%, let alone 45%. But it would equally easy to see 54% disapproval become 56% or even 58%.
The President’s numbers can likely only grow worse. This is baggage that already vulnerable Senate Democrats can ill afford.
Second, what Gallup yesterday headlined as “Republicans’ ‘Thought’ to 2014 Election Exceeds Democrats.” Everyone has known for months and months that Republicans are much more motivated than Democrats. And while “thinking” about an electorate [either “quite a lot” or “some” ] cannot simply be extrapolated out as a firm predictor of actual turnout, it’s an awfully good indicator.
Here’s Jeffrey M. Jones’s opening paragraph

PRINCETON, NJ — One in three Americans (33%) say they have given “quite a lot” or “some” thought to the 2014 midterm election, up from 26% in April. Importantly, Republicans (42%) are much more engaged than Democrats (27%) in the election at this point.

(BTW, obviously the headline should have read something along the lines of Republicans being “much more engaged” than Democrats. But…)
As Jones notes, it only stands to reason that just as more Americans are thinking about the elections than did in April, still more will as we approach November 4. Implications?
One would be, “If there is no significant narrowing of the Republican-Democratic thought gap between now and Election Day, the Republican advantage in turnout could surpass that on Election Day 2010.”
Or as Jones elaborates

“Democrats need strong turnout to minimize the potential seat losses in Congress that occur in nearly every midterm election for the president’s party. But with Republicans much more engaged in the election at this point than Democrats — and by one of the larger margins in recent midterm election years — the odds of strong Democratic turnout seem low, suggesting 2014 could be a good year for Republicans. Even if the Republican advantage narrows considerably by Election Day, as seen in 2010, Republicans seem poised to have the upper hand in turnout.”

He also makes this…interesting comment:

“To some degree, the Democratic deficit in election thought may reflect not just their turnout intentions but also their beliefs about the likelihood their party will perform well in the election. From that standpoint, the measure may overstate the Republican advantage in potential turnout this year.”

Is Jones saying that Democrats are thinking less about the election than Republicans now but will think more about it as November 4 approaches ? Because even if they are not as optimistic as Republicans they will turn out anyway? How does that follow?
What about Republicans? Is Jones saying the turnout advantage may be exaggerated because the “thinking about” advantage Republicans enjoy now is at least partially because they believe the GOP will do well in November? That this “good feeling” is just that–a feeling, and won’t be reflected in actually voting patterns? Why?

If you’re a Republican and you feel good now about November; and if you continue to “think about” the election; and your party’s prospects continue to look very good, why wouldn’t you be highly motivated to vote? What about the Republicans whose attention to the election hasn’t kicked in yet?
Moreover, given how poorly the President is faring among Independents, if I was a Democrat running in the fall, it would make me very nervous that the percentage of Independents thinking “quite a lot” or “some” about the election has increased by nine points since April—from 23% to 32%.
Third, with Democrats floundering, they are testing any number of themes in hopes of finding one that will resonate. Naturally, the common denominator is to portray Republicans as “extremists” on [fill in the blank].

The difficulty is, as Hotair’s Noah Rothman wrote,

“In 2014, it is the Democratic Party’s turn to field a slate of weak, untested, and gaffe-prone candidates.”

It’s only one state but Montana will always be remembered for how the situation for Democrats went from bad to worse to impossibly bad. Rothman wrote

“In Montana, where Democrats originally sought to rescue their electoral prospects by replacing a weak incumbent with a fresh face, the party’s hopes utterly imploded when that fresh face proved to be a serial plagiarizer. His ultimate replacement, chosen by the party at convention, is a self-described anarcho-socialist.”

More tomorrow

Source: NRLC News